Gabi Laske

3. Your affiliation
Scripps Institution of Oceanography

4. Your discipline
seismology

5. Across all ocean science disciplines, please list 3 important scientific questions that you believe will drive ocean research over the decade.
1) how does the deep-ocean heat conveyor work and what is its role to transfer heat to the surface?

2) How does the solid Earth interact with the hydrosphere and how do ocean processes interact with atmosphere processes? 

3) how are deep-ocean processes involved in global climate change?
 
6. Within your own discipline, please list 3 important scientific questions that you believe will drive ocean research over the next decade.
1) how do significant tectonic features observed on the surface (e.g. plate boundaries and hot spots) relate to geodynamical processed in Earth’s deep interior? Global seismic imaging has improved tremendously in the last 2.5 decades, but resolution is still highly uneven. Any improvement will rely heavily on the placement of sensors on the ocean floor.

2) improve earthquake early warning, using improved 3D models of Earth structure. This includes improved real-time recording of propagating tsunami as well as improved modeling.

3) how do mega-thrusts really work? This requires the reliable imaging of Earth structure on both sides of the plate boundary, i.e. installation of amphibious seismic arrays where the mega-thrust involves areas on land. Currently, the monitoring of sea-side seismicity is missing or incomplete in virtually all mega-thrusts.
7. Please list 3 ideas for programs, technology, infrastructure, or facilities that you believe will play a major role in addressing the above questions over the next decade. Please consider both existing and new technology/facilities/infrastructure/programs that could be deployed in this timeframe. What mechanisms might be identified to best leverage these investments (interagency collaborations, international partnerships, etc.)?
Improved seismic imaging will heavily depend on the placement of ocean bottom seismometers (OBSs). However, the current OBSIP facility is too small for all the exciting experiments that PIs propose. There is increasing pressure on single-PI proposals by “community experiments” that tie up large numbers of instruments, and funding. Less and less people may gather experience on how do an OBS experiment, from planning all the way to publication. Also, in community experiments instruments and their deployment are readily funded by NSF, but it seems difficult to compete for actual science funding. 

An exciting aspect of seaside earthquake monitoring is the need for real-time data access. This is not achievable by traditional OBS deployments. Wave gliders tow a payload that provides communication between the glider and the OBS. A wave glider may also be able to tow a discardable OBS unit from “home” to a remote location in the ocean, where deployment from a ship may be prohibitively large.
8. Other comments pertinent to the committee’s charge.
apparent decrease in funding of basic, single-PI research. It is often this research (vs big projects) that provides the exciting new discoveries. NSF still provides the single-most important source of funding for single-PI basic research. 

find the right balance between funding (major) facilities and the science done with them. It seems relatively easy to find initial money for facilities but then there is no easy way to fund the actual science. Most PIs rely on soft money to some degree to fund their salaries, and they simply cannot afford to do research for free. 

while robotic technology opens exciting new ways to explore the oceans remotely, the need for a well-functioning diverse fleet of research vessels will remain. Expensive special-purpose vessels should not have to operate on the expense of general-purpose vessels. The UNOLS fleet is aging. With each ship dropping out of the UNOLS fleet, we lose another vital means to explore the deep unknowns in the ocean that still remain.

Merrick Haller

3. Your affiliation
Oregon State University

4. Your discipline
Coastal Engineering

5. Across all ocean science disciplines, please list 3 important scientific questions that you believe will drive ocean research over the decade.
How will coastal storm activity be affected by climate change?

What are the limitations on forecasting natural hazards and potential hazard damage?

What are the best mitigation strategies for environmental damage and ecological changes induced by human activities?
 
6. Within your own discipline, please list 3 important scientific questions that you believe will drive ocean research over the next decade.
How do we improve the forecast accuracy of nearshore storm impact and inundation?

How do we improve our ability to collect, ingest, and assimilate observations into forecasting models? Significant efforts are being made to build our ocean observing infrastructure (through NSF and NOAA observatories), these investments would be better leveraged with simultaneous efforts to improve our observing tools and our ability to assimilate data into models. 

How do we de-compartmentalize our models? For example, wave models are divvied up by whether they are deep water or shallow water, linear or nonlinear, spectral or phase-resolving. Having to couple different model-types and to nest different regions of the ocean are some of the biggest hurdles in wave forecasting. Developing models that more effectively span these domains would yield significant improvements in our forecasting ability.

7. Please list 3 ideas for programs, technology, infrastructure, or facilities that you believe will play a major role in addressing the above questions over the next decade. Please consider both existing and new technology/facilities/infrastructure/programs that could be deployed in this timeframe. What mechanisms might be identified to best leverage these investments (interagency collaborations, international partnerships, etc.)?
Presently, it seems that agencies suffer from compartmentalization (just like models, as mentioned above). Intra-agency and inter-agency de-compartmentalization would better allow diverse scientists to collaborate (e.g. modelers and observationalists) and would better allow more comprehensive science questions to be addressed (e.g. questions that cross the traditional ocean boundaries like nearshore to deep water).
8. Other comments pertinent to the committee’s charge.

Caitlin Whalen

3. Your affiliation
Scripps Institution of Oceanography

4. Your discipline
Physical Oceanography

5. Across all ocean science disciplines, please list 3 important scientific questions that you believe will drive ocean research over the decade.
Across all disciplines….

1) How is climate change affecting the ocean on both global, regional scales?
2) What processes are driving these changes?
3) How is do we expect the ocean to change in the future?
 
6. Within your own discipline, please list 3 important scientific questions that you believe will drive ocean research over the next decade.
1) How are the physical properties, circulation, fluxes, etc, of the ocean changing and why?
2) How do we expect physical properties, circulation, fluxes, etc, of the ocean changing in the future?
3) What physics behind the processes that are to small to be resolved in climate models, yet are important to the larger-scales? (diapycnal mixing, submesoscale, air-sea interactions, etc)

7. Please list 3 ideas for programs, technology, infrastructure, or facilities that you believe will play a major role in addressing the above questions over the next decade. Please consider both existing and new technology/facilities/infrastructure/programs that could be deployed in this timeframe. What mechanisms might be identified to best leverage these investments (interagency collaborations, international partnerships, etc.)?
1) Global-class research vessels.
2) Expansion of the existing remote observations (in-situ and satellite-based) that have versatile scientific applications. For example projects such as expanding Argo to include deep casts, more sensors, and coverage in remote areas.
3) Observational infrastructure that fills in the temporal and spatial gaps not covered by (1) and (2) (such as the TAO equatorial mooring array).

8. Other comments pertinent to the committee’s charge.

Sam Kelly

3. Your affiliation
University of Minnesota Duluth

4. Your discipline
Physical Oceanography

5. Across all ocean science disciplines, please list 3 important scientific questions that you believe will drive ocean research over the decade.
(1) What are the cumulative local and global effects of intermittent, high-frequency, and small-scale processes? 

(2) In which ways and to what extent are ocean dynamics sensitive to environmental changes? 

(3) How can observations and numerical models be optimally combined to reduce uncertainty in ocean predictions?
 
6. Within your own discipline, please list 3 important scientific questions that you believe will drive ocean research over the next decade.
(1) What is the global geography of intermittent, high-frequency, and small-scale physical processes? And, how do we adequately sample these processes?

(2) What are the dynamic roles of small-scale physical processes in shaping large-scale physical variability? 

(3) How do we improve predictions of intermittent, high-frequency, and small-scale physical processes?

7. Please list 3 ideas for programs, technology, infrastructure, or facilities that you believe will play a major role in addressing the above questions over the next decade. Please consider both existing and new technology/facilities/infrastructure/programs that could be deployed in this timeframe. What mechanisms might be identified to best leverage these investments (interagency collaborations, international partnerships, etc.)?

(1) Expanded support for developing, deploying, and disseminating creative and inexpensive instruments that have the potential to drastically increase the spatial and temporal resolution of in situ ocean observations. 

(2) Continued support for numerous exploratory and processed-based observational studies 

(3) Focused programs to reward, incentivize, and fund data, model, and instrument sharing with the general scientific community. E.g., directed support for maintaining public data servers, developing web pages, and writing user manuals. And, refining evaluation frameworks to emphasize sharing research products as much as publishing results.

8. Other comments pertinent to the committee’s charge.

Oliver Sun

3. Your affiliation
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

4. Your discipline
Physical Oceanography

5. Across all ocean science disciplines, please list 3 important scientific questions that you believe will drive ocean research over the decade.
1) Ocean and coupled atmosphere-ocean processes span a huge range of time and space scales. How well do we understand the interactions, e.g., between small-scale, high-frequency processes and daily to seasonal variability on up to long-term, basin-wide or global trends? To the extent that models can be said to “capture” these couplings in the present climate system, how true will this be for future climate scenarios?


2) How can we improve weather prediction and preparedness/mitigation — in particular with respect to severe storms/hurricanes/typhoons? Does there need to be an increased commitment to weather observation networks?

3) What or where are the observational constraints on climate prediction? If there are significant gaps in our observations, then what measurements should we be making and what is their feasibility? For example, what is the level of interest in maintaining long time series measurements whose benefit may be relatively limited in the short term?
 
6. Within your own discipline, please list 3 important scientific questions that you believe will drive ocean research over the next decade.
1) Longstanding questions about how the ocean “works”: a) How much wind energy is input into the oceans and where and how are energy from winds and tides dissipated? b) What are the effects on the circulation, vertical mixing and heat transport? c) What are the feedbacks into the atmosphere?

2) What are the heat, tracer, and energy/momentum fluxes at the top and bottom of the oceanic mixed layer, and what controls them?

3) Many of the advances in understanding over the past few decades have been about oceanic processes which are intermittent, localized, often strongly nonlinear (e.g., hydraulic overflows, bottom- and slope-intensified bores, solitary waves, wave-mean and/or wave-front interactions and breaking, physical-biogeochemical interactions, storm passage, many others). What new instruments and techniques are needed to better document these strongly nonlinear processes?

7. Please list 3 ideas for programs, technology, infrastructure, or facilities that you believe will play a major role in addressing the above questions over the next decade. Please consider both existing and new technology/facilities/infrastructure/programs that could be deployed in this timeframe. What mechanisms might be identified to best leverage these investments (interagency collaborations, international partnerships, etc.)?
The UNOLS ships will be vital for developing and collecting the observations needed to address the problems discussed above, and to respond to new goals and problems as they arise.

Support for new instruments is also needed. In particular, more and better small/low-cost instruments are sorely needed to take full advantage of autonomous vehicles and platforms.

Finally, long-term commitments to weather and climate observing systems are needed which go beyond the time scales of individual projects and careers.

8. Other comments pertinent to the committee’s charge.
Oft-stated goals such as encouraging risk taking, leaps in capability rather than incremental changes, increasing the number of Ph.D.s in math and sciences, etc., all depend upon a funding (and hiring) environment which is friendly to the above.

Jack Barth

3. Your affiliation
Oregon State University

4. Your discipline
physical oceanography

5. Across all ocean science disciplines, please list 3 important scientific questions that you believe will drive ocean research over the decade.
What changes will occur in Arctic ocean circulation and marine ecosystems due to a warming climate?

What are the physical mechanisms for exchange between the coast and the open ocean and how do chemical and biological processes act to influence exchange in this region. Examples in include the exchange of nutrients, sediment, larvae, energy and pollutants. One particular example is the supply of offshore water that is becoming increasingly low in pH and dissolved oxygen to the shore and estuaries.

How do physical, chemical and biological processes on the submesoscale influence mixing, biological productivity and transport in the ocean?
 
6. Within your own discipline, please list 3 important scientific questions that you believe will drive ocean research over the next decade.
What changes will occur in Arctic ocean circulation due to a warming climate? How do these processes regulate exchange between the very wide Arctic continental shelves and the adjacent deep basin. How do changes in the Arctic influence basin scale processes in adjacent oceans?

What are the physical mechanisms for exchange between the coast and the open ocean, specifically across the nearshore and inner-shelf regions? How might they change in a warming climate that changes ocean stratification? How might they change with increasing sea level and storminess?

How do physical processes work on the submesoscale and how do they carry out the mixing and transport that we know exist in a large-scale sense? What is that link between mesoscale motions (straining, eddies) and mixing? Where are the geographic “hot spots” of submesoscale activity and how are they related to large-scale circulation features, sea-floor topography, etc?

7. Please list 3 ideas for programs, technology, infrastructure, or facilities that you believe will play a major role in addressing the above questions over the next decade. Please consider both existing and new technology/facilities/infrastructure/programs that could be deployed in this timeframe. What mechanisms might be identified to best leverage these investments (interagency collaborations, international partnerships, etc.)?
Increased emphasis on the inner shelf, the region connecting the nearshore, where wave processes dominate, and the continental shelf, where wind and freshwater forcing dominate. This region is important for regulating the health of productive coastal ecosystems, transporting pollutants to and from shore, impacting coastal infrastructure, recreation and search and rescue activities. This is a difficult place to work and will require new technologies and approaches. Many agencies are interested in the region including NSF, ONR, USGS, and state water quality agencies.

Science and technology emphasis on “smart” robotic vehicles carrying advanced sensors. We are learning much with drifting floats and pilot-controlled gliders, but more can be accomplished with vehicles that can make sampling decisions based on the environment.

Maintain support for underwater laboratories capable of providing critical information about the ocean where individual investigators may pursue their own projects.

8. Other comments pertinent to the committee’s charge.

J. Evan Ward

3. Your affiliation
University of Connecticut, Dept. of Marine Sciences

4. Your discipline
Marine Biology

5. Across all ocean science disciplines, please list 3 important scientific questions that you believe will drive ocean research over the decade.
1. What are the impacts (other than climate change) of anthropogenic inputs on marine organisms? 

2. How will climate change impacts on diversity and biogeography?

3. What are the feed-back consequences of #1 and #2 on humans?
 
6. Within your own discipline, please list 3 important scientific questions that you believe will drive ocean research over the next decade.
1. How do multiple stressors (natural and anthropogenic) impact fitness and condition of marine organisms?

2. What role does the microbiome of marine organisms play in mediating the “health” of individuals and populations? 

3. How will the microbiome of marine organisms change in response to changing ocean conditions?

7. Please list 3 ideas for programs, technology, infrastructure, or facilities that you believe will play a major role in addressing the above questions over the next decade. Please consider both existing and new technology/facilities/infrastructure/programs that could be deployed in this timeframe. What mechanisms might be identified to best leverage these investments (interagency collaborations, international partnerships, etc.)?
1. More opportunities for collaborative programs between EPA, NSF, and NIH. 

2. Expand interdisciplinary training programs for issues listed above. 

3. Additional emphasis on issues related to oceans and human health.

8. Other comments pertinent to the committee’s charge.

Malin Pinsky

3. Your affiliation
Rutgers University

4. Your discipline
marine ecology

5. Across all ocean science disciplines, please list 3 important scientific questions that you believe will drive ocean research over the decade.
1) How will climate change and ocean acidification affect marine ecosystems, from physics to top predators?

2) How does larval dispersal influence the dynamics and evolution of marine populations and communities?

3) How do we balance human influences on ocean ecosystems to ensure sustainable flows of ecosystem services for us and future generations?
 
6. Within your own discipline, please list 3 important scientific questions that you believe will drive ocean research over the next decade.
1) How will climate change and ocean acidification influence the population dynamics, distribution, and assembly of marine communities?

2) How do marine populations and communities integrate the impacts of multiple human stressors?

3) When, where, why, and how does local adaptation occur in the ocean?

7. Please list 3 ideas for programs, technology, infrastructure, or facilities that you believe will play a major role in addressing the above questions over the next decade. Please consider both existing and new technology/facilities/infrastructure/programs that could be deployed in this timeframe. What mechanisms might be identified to best leverage these investments (interagency collaborations, international partnerships, etc.)?
1) Substantial new efforts to synthesize, curate, centralize, and expand monitoring efforts for marine animals. The Ocean Biogeographic Information System (OBIS) is an initial effort in this direction, but lags far behind similar compilations for physical and chemical oceanographic data. Such efforts are key for understanding ecosystem dynamics at large spatial and temporal scales.

2) New programs emphasizing the study of marine ecosystems at large scales, similar to the NSF-NOAA CAMEO project that was cut short.

3) Interdisciplinary programs in or similar to the Science, Engineering, and Education for Sustainability (SEES) theme at NSF will likely play key roles integrating our understanding together from disparate fields.

8. Other comments pertinent to the committee’s charge.

Douglas Luther

3. Your affiliation
University of Hawaii

4. Your discipline
Physical Oceanography

5. Across all ocean science disciplines, please list 3 important scientific questions that you believe will drive ocean research over the decade.
1. What are the processes that alter and re-distribute water properties by advection, diffusion, chemical interaction, biological activity and surface fluxes (top and bottom)? Which ones dominate in each region, vertically and horizontally? Consider biological thin layers (cms to meters thick; see Durham & Stocker, 2012, review). In some regions, they dominate productivity. Notoriously difficult to detect and observe, these layers form and evolve under the influence of a plethora of physical, chemical and biological processes, not all of which act at once.


2. How is the relative importance of each process changing over interannual time scales?

3. What are the implications of this changing balance to ecosystems? What are the climate system feedbacks? Consider a scenario of more storms forcing higher surface layer energy. Zooplankton eschew high energy when they migrate to graze on phytoplankton. More energy could mean less grazing, slower growth, less food for higher trophic levels, etc.
 
6. Within your own discipline, please list 3 important scientific questions that you believe will drive ocean research over the next decade.
1. What are the processes that alter and re-distribute water properties by advection, diffusion and surface fluxes (top and bottom)? Which ones dominate in each region, vertically and horizontally? Consider the surprising dominance of Langmuir Cells, instead of the expected “normal” turbulence, that was found in a shallow coastal environment, using a VADCP powered by the LEO-15 observatory cable (Gargett and Wells, 2007, JFM).

2. How is the relative importance of each process changing over interannual time scales as the environment changes?

3. What are the implications of this changing balance to the distribution of water properties? What are the climate system feedbacks?
7. Please list 3 ideas for programs, technology, infrastructure, or facilities that you believe will play a major role in addressing the above questions over the next decade. Please consider both existing and new technology/facilities/infrastructure/programs that could be deployed in this timeframe. What mechanisms might be identified to best leverage these investments (interagency collaborations, international partnerships, etc.)?
While the occasional expeditionary experiment can identify particular processes and validate models thereof, years of multi-disciplinary data are required to understand the interplay of processes, most of which are inherently nonlinear. In any given environment, energy sources are both episodic and changing on interannual time scales.

To understand and model how the interplay of processes is changing as the environment changes, and whether or not climate system feedbacks are positive or negative, we need to deploy concentrations of multi-disciplinary sensors on infrastructure that can deliver sustained power and interactive communication, enabling long-duration observations at high temporal and vertical sampling rates, e.g., the McLane Moored Profiler can be deployed 10 times longer than under battery power. As well, interactive communication enables re-tasking assets, such as profilers, to achieve even higher temporal and spatial resolution of episodic phenomena, such as thin layers.

8. Other comments pertinent to the committee’s charge.
Regarding the committee’s Charge #5, I imagine the committee will consider NOAA’s observational and modeling commitments to paint the broad picture of global changes of temperature and salinity, and perhaps dissolved oxygen and CO2. NOAA has fully embraced the broad deployment of autonomous vehicles, such as surface drifters, ARGO profilers, and instrumented gliders, as well as traditional methodologies for CLIVAR repeat hydrography sections, MOC and equatorial monitoring, etc. These efforts are sufficient.

Considering NSF’s budget imperatives and its primary role to support the most innovative, and even risky, science, I hope the committee will also evaluate the commitments and planned investments of foreign governments in order to avoid duplication of effort. For example, the drilling program could survive quite well without the JOIDES Resolution, which is a less-capable drill ship than Japan’s Chikyu Hakken. Let the international partners lead this routine program.

Edward Dever

3. Your affiliation
Oregon State Univ.

4. Your discipline
physical oceanography

5. Across all ocean science disciplines, please list 3 important scientific questions that you believe will drive ocean research over the decade.
What are ocean ecosystem responses to ocean acidification likely to look like?

What are combined ecosystem responses to climate change (including wind forcing, ocean temperature, ocean acidification, eutrophication, and ocean currents)?

How are organisms transported to and from the nearshore zone (i.e., what are the processes that determine the dispersion kernel of organisms inhabiting the nearshore)?
 
6. Within your own discipline, please list 3 important scientific questions that you believe will drive ocean research over the next decade.
How do submesoscale lateral dispersion processes that are difficult to model using standard oceanographic models (e.g. ROMS) link up to mesoscale processes?

What are the long term changes of the global ocean temperatures?

7. Please list 3 ideas for programs, technology, infrastructure, or facilities that you believe will play a major role in addressing the above questions over the next decade. Please consider both existing and new technology/facilities/infrastructure/programs that could be deployed in this timeframe. What mechanisms might be identified to best leverage these investments (interagency collaborations, international partnerships, etc.)?
long term research quality in situ coastal and global time series at the marine atmospheric boundary layer with data and metadata taken to IOOS standards. Time series should include meteorological, physical oceanographic, chemical, and optical, and acoustic data and be available in near real time.

coastal and global glider transects (including biologically important properties) with data and metadata taken to IOOS standards. Data should be available in near real time.

a reusable state of the art research mooring array that can be competed and reallocated on a 5 year basis
8. Other comments pertinent to the committee’s charge.
I am associated with the Ocean Observatories Initiative so I am not an unbiased commenter.

However, I believe long term time series are critical to addressing many problems today and in the future. Many oceanographic phenomena are inherently red spectrum which means we need to keep measuring. I would argue that the most important in situ time series of the last half century include Keeling’s CO2 time series, TOGA/TAO, and CalCOFI. Each of these were not intended to provide climatic data, but each of them have been critically important. It’s time to build purposeful long term time series. Modern time series are expensive – too expensive to be be maintained for/by one lab or group. Hence the time series must be community-based and deliver data to the entire research community in near real time. These time series should incorporate a thoughtful mix of large numbers of simple sensors with smaller numbers of more sophisticated sensors.