Tuba Ozkan-Haller

3. Your affiliation
Oregon State University

4. Your discipline
Nearshore/Coastal Oceanography

5. Across all ocean science disciplines, please list 3 important scientific questions that you believe will drive ocean research over the decade.
Questions related to the interface of ocean processes and society: Effects of climate change on ocean processes, coastal inundation due to coastal storms and tsunamis (also affected by climate change), ocean acidification and de-oxygenation.
 
6. Within your own discipline, please list 3 important scientific questions that you believe will drive ocean research over the next decade.
Wave breaking and related turbulence, effects of surface gravity waves on coastal ocean processes, dynamics near rocky shores.

7. Please list 3 ideas for programs, technology, infrastructure, or facilities that you believe will play a major role in addressing the above questions over the next decade. Please consider both existing and new technology/facilities/infrastructure/programs that could be deployed in this timeframe. What mechanisms might be identified to best leverage these investments (interagency collaborations, international partnerships, etc.)?
Although breaking waves tend to be featured on images related to Ocean Sciences (including the banner of the web [age associated with the decadal survey!), the funding that goes towards processes related to breaking waves is relatively small. Similarly, arguments related to the coastal (“brown”) ocean are used often in justifying work on ocean processes, yet important programs that address problems in the coastal region (e.g. CoastalSEES) function with 10% success rates. This is simply unacceptable and must change. I urge the committee to think carefully about societal needs and related research questions, and then consider the needed infrastructure.

8. Other comments pertinent to the committee’s charge.

Ken Rubin

3. Your affiliation
University of Hawaii

4. Your discipline
Geochemicstry

5. Across all ocean science disciplines, please list 3 important scientific questions that you believe will drive ocean research over the decade.
Thank you committee members for your effort. But why do you have this form that limits our input to 1000 characters per box.  WTF!

1. Understanding fluxes of carbon, nutrients & micronutrients to-from sea water at high spatial resolution, including, most importantly, fluxes through the sea bed. Multiple new discoveries of active volcanism, cold seeps, and other sources of fluid fluxes have major implications for total CO2 in deep water masses and need to be better understood to fully know how the marine carbon cycle operates.
2. detailed knowledge of local/regional changes in sea level over the past decades and millennia since the LGM to predict future sea level rise vulnerability. we must uncover still poorly understood geophysical and physical oceanographic parameters, and their timescales, soon to better model local sea level rise over the coming centuries.

3. Response of marine geochemical cycles and ecological feedbacks/interplays to changing climate.
 
6. Within your own discipline, please list 3 important scientific questions that you believe will drive ocean research over the next decade.

1. understand frequency, magnitude of heat/chemical fluxes from active submarine volcanism. Recent fundamental new discoveries include previously unknown large liquid CO2 input to the deep ocean. We need smart tools to autonomously detect active volcanism to drive in situ observations by AUV, ROV & HOV more efficiently than now 

2. More observations of sea level change reconstruction from coral reefs over the last 20,000 yrs to predict future sea level change. There are currently only 3 complete records worldwide and yet these record, do not provide sufficient data coverage or quality to properly recover global sea level change, let alone local & regional change

3. Better & more compositional data, & data discovery tools on submarine volcanic rocks, particularly MOR, & relationships to the physical parameters that drive crustal formation, to understand present & past fluxes of heat & composition to the world’s oceans

7. Please list 3 ideas for programs, technology, infrastructure, or facilities that you believe will play a major role in addressing the above questions over the next decade. Please consider both existing and new technology/facilities/infrastructure/programs that could be deployed in this timeframe. What mechanisms might be identified to best leverage these investments (interagency collaborations, international partnerships, etc.)?
1. The surface fleet (UNOLS) is critical for sample collections to support these projects. 

2. deep submergence tools (rov and hov) are both critical too. 

3. Funding for curiosity-based, core science. extreme funding shortfalls (due to a combination of budget cuts and poor funds management within some programs within NSF-OCE (especially MGG program), have made it next to impossible to fund field programs like this for the past 5 years. NSF has increasingly directed more and more funds to infrastructure projects and overly-broad, large-number-of -researcher, poorly-defined, cross-disciplinary research efforts, decimating small PI projects funded through core programs. Ironically, core program research backed by independent and honest peer review are the main drivers of success at NSF, and the one thing that distinguishes it from other federal funding agencies. If we keep seeing all the money go to organized programs, blue sky ocean science will wither and die.

8. Other comments pertinent to the committee’s charge.
We are in an exciting time, as technological, navigational, and computational advances allow us to look at ever more complex problems in greater detail. It is ironic then that extreme lack of funds is squelching our community’s research efforts and discouraging the next generation of scientists. Of the many causes, one I wish to point out is poor stewardship and bad recent restructuring within NSF. Poor decision making has harmed the MGG program which I am familiar with as both a funded researcher for 20 yrs and as a panelist 6 times in the past 10). PMs recently decided to put roughly 40% of the core program budget into a single project (Cascadia OBS array), after which proposal success rates drop from 1 in 6 to 1 in 12 overnight 3 years ago and with no clear end in sight. This was a conscious decision never conveyed to the community. A project of this magnitude needed either a new funds or some sort of broader community buy-in. Failing to communicate to us worsened the situation.

John Orcutt

3. Your affiliation
University of California, San Diego; Scripps Institution of Oceanograph; IGPP

4. Your discipline
Geophysics & engineering

5. Across all ocean science disciplines, please list 3 important scientific questions that you believe will drive ocean research over the decade.
1. How can we determine experimentally, the ocean heat content and contributions of melting polar ice necessary to understand and predict rates of sea level rise? How do warming oceans and ice coverage interact? This includes the determination of ocean heat content variability including the deep ocean where ignorance is greatest.

2. How does life in the ocean evolve, especially at the microbial level, in response to ocean changes including climate.

3. How do we better understand the interactions of plates in subduction zones that occasionally give rise to extraordinarily large and destructive earthquakes and tsunamis?
 
6. Within your own discipline, please list 3 important scientific questions that you believe will drive ocean research over the next decade.
1. Extending global coverage of seismic and geodetic measurements and tomography from the continents to the oceans in sufficient density to truly complement the measurements made on land for global seismic tomographic experiments and the understanding of major earthhquakes?

2. Meaningful measurements of seismic sources, seismic structure, geodesy, and geological structures necessary for addressing the origins of major earthquakes and tsunamis (see above). Measurements ashore and in the oceans are essential.

3. What drives plate tectonics including a fuller understanding of deep structure including hot spots, mid-ocean ridges and subduction zones?

7. Please list 3 ideas for programs, technology, infrastructure, or facilities that you believe will play a major role in addressing the above questions over the next decade. Please consider both existing and new technology/facilities/infrastructure/programs that could be deployed in this timeframe. What mechanisms might be identified to best leverage these investments (interagency collaborations, international partnerships, etc.)?
1) Ships play an essential role in access to the seas and many programs and technologies rely upon such access. Ships now have excellent access to real-time Internet connections and the access should be used to use ships as a meaningful part of an ocean observing system. Consider how new ship opportunities like the Schmidt Ocean Institute’s ship, FALKOR, fit into these plans. How does the fleet fit into new or ongoing science priorities?

2) Maintenance and modernization of spacecraft will be essential for many disciplines and scientific questions.

3) While ocean observations have been made over decades and centuries from ships, modern technology is enhancing satellite, robotic and observatory technologies, which may collect data best suited for new scientific questions. The importance of stable, long-term observations with well-known geographic and temporal resolution dictate that data quality, openness, and life-cycle costs be fully considered over coming decades.

8. Other comments pertinent to the committee’s charge.
Of the three components of GEO, OCE is the smallest user of large-scale computing in NSF’s eXtreme Digital program. This observation is mitigated by the facts that ocean scientists do work with NCAR facilities and several medium-scale facilities are maintained at the institutional level. There should be wider access within the ocean community to large-scale computing, on-demand computing for modeling of various kinds including the assimilation of data in near-real-time. There should be a greater concern for open data access, the maintenance of provenance of observations, and the discovery of data at all scales through temporal, geographic, and observation types on a global, international basis. Education at the undergraduate and graduate level should be enhanced to include the ability to take advantage these kinds of networking and computational capabilities.

Sonya Legg

3. Your affiliation
Princeton University

4. Your discipline
physical oceanography

5. Across all ocean science disciplines, please list 3 important scientific questions that you believe will drive ocean research over the decade.
1.What role does the ocean play in climate and its variations over many different time-scales (weeks to millenia)? 

2. How will natural and anthropogenic changes in the ocean physical and chemical state influence the marine resources on which human society depends?

3. What are the interactions between physical and biological ocean processes across many different spatial and temporal scales?

 
6. Within your own discipline, please list 3 important scientific questions that you believe will drive ocean research over the next decade.
1. What are the ocean processes that contribute to climate variability on different time-scales, and how can we develop credible climate models which accurately represent these processes?

2. What are the energetic pathways in the ocean, from large-scale mechanical and buoyancy forcing through large-scale circulation, mesoscale eddies, internal waves and ultimately to turbulence and dissipation, and can we represent the influence of these processes, including the energy transfers between mesoscale and turbulence, in an energetically consistent manner in climate models?

3. What are the ocean physical/dynamical processes in regions of ice-cover, and how will changes of ice-cover lead to changes in these processes and hence the rest of the ocean/climate system?

7. Please list 3 ideas for programs, technology, infrastructure, or facilities that you believe will play a major role in addressing the above questions over the next decade. Please consider both existing and new technology/facilities/infrastructure/programs that could be deployed in this timeframe. What mechanisms might be identified to best leverage these investments (interagency collaborations, international partnerships, etc.)?
Extension of float programs such as ARGO to include more extensive spatial coverage (e.g. deeper floats), more sensors (e.g. turbulent dissipation, chemistry etc), and increased use of autonomous under-ice measurements (gliders etc), as well as continuation of long-term monitoring efforts. Increased use of ocean and climate prediction/projection and paleoclimate modeling to evaluate understanding and representation of ocean processes and their role in the large-scale circulation and climate. Continued efforts to bring together observationalists, process modelers and climate model developers, such as the successful Climate Process Team model, combined with efforts to make models more easily usable by a wider community, and both model data and process study observations more widely archived and accessible.

8. Other comments pertinent to the committee’s charge.
Investments in infrastructure, both observational and computational, need to be matched by investments in human resources which make use of the infrastructure developments, i.e. through analysis of the observational and/or numerical data. Funds also need to be reserved to respond to new ideas generated by data from the new infrastructure development, e.g. to carry out additional experiments to test hypotheses generated by that data. Without these additional components, the benefits of the infrastructure investment cannot be fully realized.

Thomas Decloedt

3. Your affiliation
University of Hawaii

4. Your discipline
Physical Oceanography

5. Across all ocean science disciplines, please list 3 important scientific questions that you believe will drive ocean research over the decade.
1) The influence of the sub-mesoscale circulation on the ocean general circulation, marine biogeochemistry and atmospheric circulation. 2) A better understanding of biophysical coupling in the ocean 3) Sea level rise and its influence on coastal/island communities
 
6. Within your own discipline, please list 3 important scientific questions that you believe will drive ocean research over the next decade.
1) Can we close the energy budget of the ocean? Our understanding of the energy budget still consists mostly of strawman diagrams with significant open questions, even for the well-studied tidal component, indicating our lack of a dynamical understanding of energy transfer across scales 2) Can we construct dynamical parameterizations for the smallest scales of motion such that ocean general circulation models more accurately reflect the the ocean? 3) What happens near the bottom boundary of the ocean? Our understanding of the importance of internal wave and low-frequency flow with bathymetry is insufficient to decide what bathymetric features (e.g., canyons vs. abyssal hills) have most effect on the ocean circulation.

7. Please list 3 ideas for programs, technology, infrastructure, or facilities that you believe will play a major role in addressing the above questions over the next decade. Please consider both existing and new technology/facilities/infrastructure/programs that could be deployed in this timeframe. What mechanisms might be identified to best leverage these investments (interagency collaborations, international partnerships, etc.)?
1) Long time series of observations at more locations in the global ocean

2) A continued push to understand small-scale turbulent mixing in the ocean. We are so close to making major improvements in the way turbulence is parameterized for global circulation models

3) Training of oceanographers capable of starting world class oceanographic research on the African continent
8. Other comments pertinent to the committee’s charge.

Emily C. Roland

3. Your affiliation
University of Washington, School of Oceanography

4. Your discipline
Seismology

5. Across all ocean science disciplines, please list 3 important scientific questions that you believe will drive ocean research over the decade.
1.) Can we improve global climate models to a level at which current carbon inputs to the oceans and atmosphere can be tracked and used to accurately forecast oceanographic and climatic phenomena at timescales relevant to anthropogenic climate change? 2.) Can we monitor and anticipate anthropogenic impacts on coastal landscapes in an appropriate way to inform political decision making for future development and regulation? 3.) Can we characterize how kinematic processes and physical properties of the solid earth at different scales influence active tectonic phenomena that in turn control the location and timing of geologic hazards, including earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides and volcanic hazards.
 
6. Within your own discipline, please list 3 important scientific questions that you believe will drive ocean research over the next decade.
1.) How do structural heterogeneities influence earthquake rupture properties and how can we practically image plate boundary faults (most of which are offshore) at appropriate spatial scales to identify key structural features? 2.) What is the mechanistic relationship between continuous fault creep, episodic slow slip, tectonic tremor, time-varying microseismicity and large seismic ruptures; what do slow slip phenomena tell us about the propensity for future large earthquakes along specific fault zones? 3.) What are the physical conditions that control the up-dip and down-dip limit of the seismogenic zone and how do we characterize the extent of the seismogenic zone at specific plate boundary faults in the marine setting, such as subduction zones and transform faults.

7. Please list 3 ideas for programs, technology, infrastructure, or facilities that you believe will play a major role in addressing the above questions over the next decade. Please consider both existing and new technology/facilities/infrastructure/programs that could be deployed in this timeframe. What mechanisms might be identified to best leverage these investments (interagency collaborations, international partnerships, etc.)?
1) A program to collect basic geophysical datasets such as bathymetry, gravity and magnetics over active tectonic margins would aid a wide range of efforts toward both current research questions and planning activities for future research. Currently much of seafloor along the worlds plate boundaries has not been mapped, making it difficult to identify plausible connections between even basic structural features and geodynamical phenomena. A spatially comprehensive mapping effort producing a dataset that is publicly would make future research more effective 2.) Continuing to utilize geophysical infrastructure that has already been developed, such as the Amphibious Array Facility and the National Seismic Research Facility (R/V Langseth) is an obvious but important goal. Having the resources necessary to exploit this technology to it’s maximum potential is a relatively simply requirement, but key to continuing to gain scientific insight from these facilities.

8. Other comments pertinent to the committee’s charge.
Though expensive and a difficult charge – I believe expanding current cabled seafloor observatories will provide the first opportunity to explore how continuous real time observations in marine settings can change current strategies for understanding geodynamical processes in the marine setting. Whereas many marine geophysical datasets have been developed during relatively short time-frames (with limited power), new observation capabilities associated with a continuous power supply and permanent deployments may allow for a more comprehensive view of how complex processes work.

Meghan Cronin

3. Your affiliation
NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory

4. Your discipline
Physical Oceanography

5. Across all ocean science disciplines, please list 3 important scientific questions that you believe will drive ocean research over the decade.
What are the global warming effects on the Arctic and deep ocean? Can ocean observations provide climate predictability (particularly of rainfall) over land? How much CO2 does the ocean take up, and how does the resulting ocean acidification affect marine life?
 
6. Within your own discipline, please list 3 important scientific questions that you believe will drive ocean research over the next decade.
How does water organize into fronts and eddies, and how do these fronts then affect the flux of properties (e.g. heat) horizontally and vertically, including across the air-sea interface? How can turbulent mixing over small-scales be represented in terms of measurable quantities that are well represented in numerical models? What are the flow characteristics and dynamics in the ocean boundary layers of the air-sea interface, bottom topography and continental margins?

7. Please list 3 ideas for programs, technology, infrastructure, or facilities that you believe will play a major role in addressing the above questions over the next decade. Please consider both existing and new technology/facilities/infrastructure/programs that could be deployed in this timeframe. What mechanisms might be identified to best leverage these investments (interagency collaborations, international partnerships, etc.)?
Long time series are of critical importance for understanding climate variability. However many of the open sciences questions are with regards to processes that are rapid and small- or meso-scale, that are not resolved in the models (see above list of 3 important scientific questions within PO). For this we need both the resolution and long duration, such as provided so well by moorings and satellites. We also need process studies embedded within the large-scale sustained observing system that includes Argo, satellite, moorings and other platforms. While we may dream about doing this all through autonomous technologies, the reality is that we need ships. Global class ships. These ships not only provide transport to remote parts of the ocean, they can act as observing platforms themselves. Shared shiptime also provides a way to do intensive and multi-disciplinary fieldwork that can add many dimensions to the observations.

8. Other comments pertinent to the committee’s charge.
All observations, including long time series observations, must be performed by scientists interested in actually using the data. By removing the chief scientist, the system can so easily slip into either an engineering exercise or a jobs program. This is what happened when the Tropical Pacific ENSO array was transitioned to operations and is a major concern with the OOI.


NSF has been very successful by funding good ideas that have been vetted through anonymous peer review. We need more of this! I am very concerned about NSF removing the scientist from the equation and focusing so intensely on “infrastructure”. 

William D. Smyth

3. Your affiliation
Oregon State University

4. Your discipline
Physical Oceanography

5. Across all ocean science disciplines, please list 3 important scientific questions that you believe will drive ocean research over the decade.
1. How will the Earth’s climate evolve, on global to regional scales, in coming decades?

2. How will sea level (both mean and extremal values) evolve in coming decades?
 
6. Within your own discipline, please list 3 important scientific questions that you believe will drive ocean research over the next decade.
1. How can ocean forecast models best represent interactions between resolved features (e.g. large-scale currents) and subgrid-scale fluctuations (turbulence)?

2. How can models accurately represent the small-scale processes that drive air-sea interactions (e.g. surface wave breaking, Langmuir circulations)?

3. What is the relationship between interannual climate cycles (e.g. ENSO) and longer-term changes?

7. Please list 3 ideas for programs, technology, infrastructure, or facilities that you believe will play a major role in addressing the above questions over the next decade. Please consider both existing and new technology/facilities/infrastructure/programs that could be deployed in this timeframe. What mechanisms might be identified to best leverage these investments (interagency collaborations, international partnerships, etc.)?
1. Climate Process Teams, as recently funded by NSF, efficiently support collaborations between observationalist, theorists and modelers.

2. Programs to make observational and model data broadly available (e.g. EarthCube) will have a huge effect.

8. Other comments pertinent to the committee’s charge.

Mark Merrifield

3. Your affiliation
University of Hawaii

4. Your discipline
Physical Oceanography

5. Across all ocean science disciplines, please list 3 important scientific questions that you believe will drive ocean research over the decade.
To what extent will a changing climate impact weather patterns, particularly precipitation patterns and the availability of fresh water?

How will marine organisms and ecosystems respond to ongoing ocean acidification?

What processes contribute to rapid dynamical changes in ice sheets, and to what extent will these changes impact global sea-level rise?

6. Within your own discipline, please list 3 important scientific questions that you believe will drive ocean research over the next decade.
What are the drivers of decadal variability in the ocean-atmosphere system, and how do we distinguish natural variability from anthropogenically forced changes?

There is an ongoing need for studies that contribute to an improved understanding of ocean mixing and stirring at all scales, as well as process studies at the ocean-ice interface.

7. Please list 3 ideas for programs, technology, infrastructure, or facilities that you believe will play a major role in addressing the above questions over the next decade. Please consider both existing and new technology/facilities/infrastructure/programs that could be deployed in this timeframe. What mechanisms might be identified to best leverage these investments (interagency collaborations, international partnerships, etc.)?
A balanced approach is needed (new technologies, ships, satellites, sustained observing systems, etc.); however, community-driven, process-based studies should be a priority, particularly at NSF.

8. Other comments pertinent to the committee’s charge.

Simon P. de Szoeke

3. Your affiliation
Oregon State University

4. Your discipline
Physical Oceanography and Atmosphere-Ocean Interaction

5. Across all ocean science disciplines, please list 3 important scientific questions that you believe will drive ocean research over the decade.
1. How will circulations and heat transport in the oceans change for a changed climate (distribution of radiative and wind forcing)? What effects will these have on the distribution of heat in the ocean, atmosphere, land, cryosphere?

2. What processes of air-sea interaction, upper ocean kinematics and thermodynamics are most critical for increasing weather predictability and reducing the uncertainty of climate projections?

3. What existing or emerging observing strategies can glean process understanding of the ocean, as well as long-term monitoring of the state of the oceans?
 
6. Within your own discipline, please list 3 important scientific questions that you believe will drive ocean research over the next decade.
same as above, but more specifically…

What processes drive variability in cloud radiative forcing and turbulent fluxes at the air-sea interface?

How can the finite heat capacity of the upper ocean, and mixing of temperature from the surface to the intermediate ocean, be parameterized for weather and climate models?

Can we monitor the heat stored in the ocean with the precision required to constrain interannual to multidecadal climate variability?

7. Please list 3 ideas for programs, technology, infrastructure, or facilities that you believe will play a major role in addressing the above questions over the next decade. Please consider both existing and new technology/facilities/infrastructure/programs that could be deployed in this timeframe. What mechanisms might be identified to best leverage these investments (interagency collaborations, international partnerships, etc.)?
Satellite remote sensing for the upper boundary condition of the ocean, including wind scatterometers, microwave and IR SST, rain, cloud, and salinity observations, altimetry, biological productivity, air temperature, radiative fluxes, surface wave field, and turbulence at the ocean surface.

Improved buoy capability, including low-power observing systems of ocean currents, temperature, salinity, ocean turbulence and mixing, surface meteorology and turbulence fluxes, multispectral passive radiation sampling, and efficient upward looking atmospheric remote sensing.

Long term monitoring by networks of gliders and profiling drifters with existing physical oceanograpy and extended chemical, biological, and turbulence measuring capability.

8. Other comments pertinent to the committee’s charge.