Jonathan Nash

3. Your affiliation
Oregon State University

4. Your discipline
Physical Oceanography

5. Across all ocean science disciplines, please list 3 important scientific questions that you believe will drive ocean research over the decade.
(1) How do unresolved physical processes limit our ability to predict the base state of the global ocean, its circulation patterns, stratification, heat transports, carbon exchange, etc., and assess future changes of the coupled global ocean-atmosphere system?

(2) How can we use ocean science to help assess the impacts of geo-engineered “solutions” to climate change (ocean acidification, sea level rise, etc.)?

(3) How do we integrate our combined physical understanding of the ocean/atmosphere system to assess seasonal, decadal, and long term changed in the global system (physical, chemical, biological)? 
 
6. Within your own discipline, please list 3 important scientific questions that you believe will drive ocean research over the next decade.
1) What set of observed small-scale processes have the greatest influence on regional and large-scale model predictions? 

(2) How do we better parameterize the effects of internal waves and small-scale mixing in large scale coupled models?

(3) Can we better understand the processes by which ocean dynamics affect ice mass? and ice mass/cover affects ocean processes (momentum/heat/freshwater input, internal waves, etc.?)?

7. Please list 3 ideas for programs, technology, infrastructure, or facilities that you believe will play a major role in addressing the above questions over the next decade. Please consider both existing and new technology/facilities/infrastructure/programs that could be deployed in this timeframe. What mechanisms might be identified to best leverage these investments (interagency collaborations, international partnerships, etc.)?
We already have an abundance of top-down, large programs, facilities & ocean observatories that are and will be consuming a large fraction of ocean science resources. What we really need is to continue to maintain a large fraction of ocean sciences funding/resources for individual and/or small groups of PIs who have innovative, unique ideas that need resources for basic science, to perform process experiments etc. guided by inquisitive minds and not part of some bigger, preset agenda. 

8. Other comments pertinent to the committee’s charge.

Thomas Sanford

3. Your affiliation
University of Washington, Applied Physics Lab and School of Oceanography

4. Your discipline
Physical Oceanography

5. Across all ocean science disciplines, please list 3 important scientific questions that you believe will drive ocean research over the decade.
1. What are the roles and importance of the ocean in upcoming global climate change?

2. Is it understood how much we rely on sparse ocean observations in time and space, which may not be adequate to provide the information needed?

3. How do we predict a system response to forcing or processes over many decades of time and space scales?
 
6. Within your own discipline, please list 3 important scientific questions that you believe will drive ocean research over the next decade.
1. How do we observe and parameterize the sub-grid-scale processes that are not in models, such as wind forced turbulent mixing, momentum fluxes from inertial waves, internal tides, deep ocean mixing, and frontal instabilities?

2. Do we have an adequate understanding of deep ocean motions and properties, topographically trapped currents and meridional circulations?

3. Can we extend satellite observations of many surface quantities, such as T, S, velocity and biogeochemical signatures deeper into the ocean?

7. Please list 3 ideas for programs, technology, infrastructure, or facilities that you believe will play a major role in addressing the above questions over the next decade. Please consider both existing and new technology/facilities/infrastructure/programs that could be deployed in this timeframe. What mechanisms might be identified to best leverage these investments (interagency collaborations, international partnerships, etc.)?
1. Develop and utilize more physical and biogeochemical sensors on moorings, autonomous platforms, R/Vs, commercial vessels and submarine cables (including telecommunication cables).

2. Exploit more in situ spatially integrating and durable technologies, such as acoustic transmissions (IES, ATOC), bottom pressure, motional induction methods and gravity satellites.
3. Encourage coordinated international programs and participation and new ways to obtain long

duration observations from unconventional means, such as OceanScope’s effort to use commercial vessels.

8. Other comments pertinent to the committee’s charge.
Until recently, many oceanographic instruments had been invented and perfected by individual or a small teams of investigators, often a scientist with an idea working closely with a group of development engineers. This business model is broken. The level of funding and commitment are not commensurate with the uncertainties in instrument development, testing and documentation. Fractured funding is not conducive to group maintenance and focus. We will become more reliant on COTS instruments and technology, with fewer new instruments entering our field. We want to encourage innovation and invention in our field and in our country.

Emily E Brodsky

3. Your affiliation
University of California, Santa Cruz

4. Your discipline
Geophysics

5. Across all ocean science disciplines, please list 3 important scientific questions that you believe will drive ocean research over the decade.
Are the most significant earthquakes on Earth, i.e., large subduction zone events, predictable? 

How do the oceans buffer and couple to the atmosphere?

Where are accessible mineral and energy resources?
 
6. Within your own discipline, please list 3 important scientific questions that you believe will drive ocean research over the next decade.
Are there detectable geodetic or seismic precursors to major subduction zone earthquakes?

What makes certain moderate earthquakes, like those on some transforms, highly predictable?

Over what distances and timescales do faults interact?

7. Please list 3 ideas for programs, technology, infrastructure, or facilities that you believe will play a major role in addressing the above questions over the next decade. Please consider both existing and new technology/facilities/infrastructure/programs that could be deployed in this timeframe. What mechanisms might be identified to best leverage these investments (interagency collaborations, international partnerships, etc.)?
Ocean floor geodetic and seismic instrumentation is critical for studying subduction zone earthquakes. The 2011 Mw9.0 Tohoku earthquake was the most instrumented in history and revealed tantalizing glimpses of precursory seismicity and escalating slip over the month prior to the event. Such observations have obvious societal consequences, and need a serious commitment of instrumentation to explore. 

Directly determining the dynamics of rupture requires entering the fault zone itself. Deep sea drilling is the only tool available to directly explore the fault zone of after 10’s of meters of slip. This information is required to assemble a first-principle understanding of the largest earthquakes on the planet.

8. Other comments pertinent to the committee’s charge.

Marvin Lilley

3. Your affiliation
University of Washington

4. Your discipline
Geochemistry, Hydrothermal Systems

5. Across all ocean science disciplines, please list 3 important scientific questions that you believe will drive ocean research over the decade.
The response of the ocean system to changing temperature and pH.

The nature and extent of the deep biosphere.

The processes controlling subduction zones and great earthquakes.
 
6. Within your own discipline, please list 3 important scientific questions that you believe will drive ocean research over the next decade.
Achieving a greater understanding of the role of sepentinization in slow spreading hydrothermal systems.

What processes initiate and control seafloor volcanism.

The interplay between hydrothermal systems and global ocean chemistry.

7. Please list 3 ideas for programs, technology, infrastructure, or facilities that you believe will play a major role in addressing the above questions over the next decade. Please consider both existing and new technology/facilities/infrastructure/programs that could be deployed in this timeframe. What mechanisms might be identified to best leverage these investments (interagency collaborations, international partnerships, etc.)?
There is a great need for development of in-situ chemical instrumentation.

Continues development of autonomous vehicles with greater capabilities

As a user of the NEPTUNE Canada cabled observatory, I believe there is much to learn about the temporal aspect of ocean processes and support the development of such a system within the OOI. I believe we will learn much about how seafloor volcanoes operate from this infrastructure.

8. Other comments pertinent to the committee’s charge.
I too, share the concern mentioned by several other responders to this survey about the makeup of the committee. There is little representation of those with geological/geochemical systems related to the seafloor and within the oceanic crust.

Thomas C. Royer

3. Your affiliation
Old Dominion University and the University of Alaska Fairbanks

4. Your discipline
Physical oceanography

5. Across all ocean science disciplines, please list 3 important scientific questions that you believe will drive ocean research over the decade.
1. What will be the responses of the ocean to climate change? 2. How will ocean changes affect marine resources, especially fisheries? 3. How can studies of biological, chemical, geological and physical oceanography be integrated better from sampling through analysis and modeling especially at high latitudes and in coastal areas? New breakthroughs will take place on the boundaries of these disciplines. We need to sample the processes on the correct time and space scales, rather than those scales that are convenient or economically possible today. That is, we need both longer and shorter scales both temporally and spatially.
 
6. Within your own discipline, please list 3 important scientific questions that you believe will drive ocean research over the next decade.
1. We need expanded studies of coastal processes including freshwater input, especially at high latitudes and tropics. We have neglected to address the land-ocean boundaries, where a lot of marine resources are located. 2. We need to expand our measurements of processes on both long and short time and space scales. Programs like ARGO need to be continued and expanded. Sampling needs to be interdisciplinary. 3. We need to expand our work on ocean-ice processes as the Arctic Ocean ice pack retreats.

7. Please list 3 ideas for programs, technology, infrastructure, or facilities that you believe will play a major role in addressing the above questions over the next decade. Please consider both existing and new technology/facilities/infrastructure/programs that could be deployed in this timeframe. What mechanisms might be identified to best leverage these investments (interagency collaborations, international partnerships, etc.)?
We need to continue to develop interdisciplinary sampling platforms and deploy them throughout the world’s oceans. These include combinations of gliders, AUVs, ROVs, drones, moorings, satellites and ships. There is declining availability of research vessels because of their relatively high cost. The limited numbers of vessels are well distributed geographically. However, these ships are wonderful platforms for the promotion of interdisciplinary projects. We also need to assure that data management including archiving is supported. Programs for the analysis and display of the vast quantities of new data will be required.

8. Other comments pertinent to the committee’s charge.
I believe that the most important breakthroughs in oceanography will take place on the interfaces between disciplines rather than within disciplines. Resource management must also be addressed. There are many problems that we are not addressing today because the time and space scales of our measurements are inadequate. Remote sensing has helped but we have too few observations within the ocean to provide adequate descriptions of the processes there. Technology should help us immensely, but we need parallel developments in data management and modeling in order to use these new data streams.

An important problem is recruitment of new talent into ocean sciences. We need to make it a more popular choice for a student than it is today. Too much sacrifice, both in time and money, is expected from our students to develop a career in sciences.

Roger Lukas

3. Your affiliation
University of Hawaii

4. Your discipline
physical oceanography/air-sea interaction/climate dynamics

5. Across all ocean science disciplines, please list 3 important scientific questions that you believe will drive ocean research over the decade.
Inadequate parameterization of ocean turbulent mixing remains as a fundamental limit to global and regional climate simulations and predictions. Quantifying turbulent transports is a limiting factor for biogeochemical budgets and ecosystem models.


Highly resolved (in both space and time) multivariate measurements are required to make quantitative estimates of turbulent transports. These can only be made in a few places at a time, as they require significant infrastructure. The ocean sciences community began to rally around the related scientific and infrastructure issues in the early 2000s, but economic stresses now threaten progress.
 
6. Within your own discipline, please list 3 important scientific questions that you believe will drive ocean research over the next decade.
Predicting sea level rise at local scales throughout the world with accurate uncertainty estimates.

Predicting changes to the global hydrological cycle, and how ocean salinity changes will impact the chemistry and biology of the oceans.

Developing the framework and capabilities for stochastic dynamic ensemble predictions of ocean physical evolution in the coupled ocean-atmosphere system.

7. Please list 3 ideas for programs, technology, infrastructure, or facilities that you believe will play a major role in addressing the above questions over the next decade. Please consider both existing and new technology/facilities/infrastructure/programs that could be deployed in this timeframe. What mechanisms might be identified to best leverage these investments (interagency collaborations, international partnerships, etc.)?
Some of the comments from the community about budgets relative to expensive infrastructure are indicative of some immaturity in Ocean Sciences. Astrophysics, astronomy, geophysics, high-energy physics, are examples of communities that reached the limits of “small” science and could only continue their advances with larger infrastructure, around which it obviously took time and energy to build consensus. It is understandable in tough economic times that preserving individual livelihoods is considered more important than preserving overall scientific capabilities (including infrastructure and certain types of scientific expertise.) The end result could be 5000 modelers, an altimeter, and the Argo floats, with no one knowing how to actually conduct experimental measurements in the ocean.

Consider consolidating ship operations with fewer operators.

8. Other comments pertinent to the committee’s charge.
Ocean science is all about obtaining new information, extracting new knowledge from it, and applying improved understanding towards anticipating variations and change of the ocean systems. Useful predictions and/or projections inform management strategies and responses. These capabilities are relatively new, and the need for ensemble forecasts is tangible. The application of the scientific method to the ocean through experimental observations is challenging, and it requires significant infrastructure. We are unfortunately in an era where such infrastructure is seen by too many as a handicap rather than a precious legacy of prior generations of oceanographers.

Chuanmin Hu

3. Your affiliation
University of South Florida

4. Your discipline
Optical Oceanography

5. Across all ocean science disciplines, please list 3 important scientific questions that you believe will drive ocean research over the decade.
1. How will marine ecosystem respond to changes in ocean temperature, acidification, and sea level rise?

2. How do integrated ocean and atmosphere observations improve prediction of future ocean changes and reduce uncertainties?

3. How to make sustainable use of marine resources?
 
6. Within your own discipline, please list 3 important scientific questions that you believe will drive ocean research over the next decade.
1. How do carbon and nutrient cycles respond to a changing climate?

2. How are variations in exchanges across the land-ocean interface related to changes within the watershed, and how do such exchanges influence coastal and open ocean biogeochemistry and ecosystem dynamics?

3. How are the productivity and biodiversity of coastal ecosystems changing, and how
do these changes relate to natural and anthropogenic forcing, including local to regional
impacts of climate variability?

7. Please list 3 ideas for programs, technology, infrastructure, or facilities that you believe will play a major role in addressing the above questions over the next decade. Please consider both existing and new technology/facilities/infrastructure/programs that could be deployed in this timeframe. What mechanisms might be identified to best leverage these investments (interagency collaborations, international partnerships, etc.)?
1. Next-generation satellites and sensors to measure the ocean’s biogeochemical properties and ocean biodiversity

2. Autonomous underwater vehicles and sensors to sample the 3D ocean

3. Improved data assimilation and modeling
One way to improve the mechanisms is through interagency collaborations to better distribute and utilize resources.

8. Other comments pertinent to the committee’s charge.

Steven D’Hondt

3. Your affiliation
University of Rhode Island

4. Your discipline
Marine geobiology

5. Across all ocean science disciplines, please list 3 important scientific questions that you believe will drive ocean research over the decade.
1. How do/will human activities (release of CO2 and other anthropogenic gases, harvesting of marine resources, etc.) affect the life, chemistry, physics and geology of the ocean on multiple timescales (instantaneous to infinite)? Note: I mention infinite because some consequences of biological extinction are permanent.

2. How do microbial processes affect the chemistry and structure of the surface world (ocean, atmosphere, lithosphere) on all timescales (instantaneous to billions of years)? 

3. What is the nature of life in the vastly under-sampled regions of the deep ocean (seawater more than 6 km below sea level, subseafloor sediment, the subseafloor basaltic aquifer)?
 
6. Within your own discipline, please list 3 important scientific questions that you believe will drive ocean research over the next decade.
1. What is the diversity and heterogeneity of microbial communities in the ocean, marine sediment and the subseafloor basaltic aquifer?

2. How do individual microbes and microbial communities persist on extraordinarily low fluxes of bioaccessible energy in many subseafloor environments?

3. What is the nature and extent of microbial interaction (e.g., fluxes of organisms, microbially driven chemical fluxes) between the surface world (ocean and atmosphere) and the subsurface world (sediment and basalt)? 

7. Please list 3 ideas for programs, technology, infrastructure, or facilities that you believe will play a major role in addressing the above questions over the next decade. Please consider both existing and new technology/facilities/infrastructure/programs that could be deployed in this timeframe. What mechanisms might be identified to best leverage these investments (interagency collaborations, international partnerships, etc.)?
1. International Ocean Discovery Program (scientific ocean drilling),

2. U.S. long-coring capability (giant piston coring & jumbo piston coring),

3. Deepwater exploration capabilities (robotic exploration and deep-ocean sampling).

8. Other comments pertinent to the committee’s charge.

Dale Sawyer

3. Your affiliation
Rice University

4. Your discipline
Marine Geophysics

5. Across all ocean science disciplines, please list 3 important scientific questions that you believe will drive ocean research over the decade.
1. The diverse role of water in the Earth is very important to a wide range of processes. Water is essential for the chemical transport of materials and in the mechanical strength of materials on all scales.

2. Developing tools to model the Earth’s climate over a wide variety of scales.

3. Understanding the transitions in the seismogenic zone in subducting plates. These are critical for mitigating large earthquakes and tsunami.
 
6. Within your own discipline, please list 3 important scientific questions that you believe will drive ocean research over the next decade.
1. I am interested in the processes that cause continental breakup, begin seafloor spreading, and the formation of oceanic lithosphere.

2. Increasing the understanding of magma generation and structural formation of Mid-Ocean spreading centers.

3. Understanding the transitions in the seismogenic zone in subducting plates. These are critical for mitigating large earthquakes and tsunami.

7. Please list 3 ideas for programs, technology, infrastructure, or facilities that you believe will play a major role in addressing the above questions over the next decade. Please consider both existing and new technology/facilities/infrastructure/programs that could be deployed in this timeframe. What mechanisms might be identified to best leverage these investments (interagency collaborations, international partnerships, etc.)?
1. I believe that the RV Marcus Langseth seismic vessel will provide imaging for a diverse range of scientific questions. It is essential that Langseth operate in an international manner, supported not only by the US, and shared globally with a number of international partners.

2. Langseth will play an important role in supporting scientific ocean drilling (IODP) using the DV JOIDES Resolution and DV Chikyu. IODP is the best international program in science.

3. OBS’s will continue to be important for characterizing velocity in the upper 40 km (active source seismology) and whole Earth seismology (passive source seismology).

8. Other comments pertinent to the committee’s charge.

Daniel Sigman

3. Your affiliation
Princeton University

4. Your discipline
ocean biogeochemistry, paleoceanography, chemical oceanography

5. Across all ocean science disciplines, please list 3 important scientific questions that you believe will drive ocean research over the decade.
How will the upper ocean’s vertical stratification, in both high and low latitudes, respond to global warming, and what will the consequences be for the carbon cycle and ocean life? 


What are the physical, chemical, and biological connections among different ocean regions?
 
6. Within your own discipline, please list 3 important scientific questions that you believe will drive ocean research over the next decade.
What are the stabilizing feedbacks operating through ocean processes that maintain Earth’s global habitability? How do these feedbacks develop? Are there general rules, or only specific cases? Is this network of feedbacks a coincidence, or are there mechanisms (analogous to that of natural selection) by which such feedbacks develop?

What are the mechanisms by which surface and deep waters interact? What are the controls on the ventilation age of the ocean interior and on deep ocean ventilation by different regions?

How do gas exchange kinetics influence the roles that different polar ocean regions play in the ocean/atmosphere carbon cycle?

What is the role of sea ice in setting the chemical composition of deep waters?

7. Please list 3 ideas for programs, technology, infrastructure, or facilities that you believe will play a major role in addressing the above questions over the next decade. Please consider both existing and new technology/facilities/infrastructure/programs that could be deployed in this timeframe. What mechanisms might be identified to best leverage these investments (interagency collaborations, international partnerships, etc.)?
Given concerns about the unsustainable nature of current infrastructure costs, it alarms me that this is one of the 3 questions asked here. The most innovative research will be funded as projects of a single PI or a few PIs; this funding strategy, while harder to explain to the general public, must be championed. I know of no evidence that large programs have yielded better or more efficient science than single PI-driven projects. Indeed, the large projects tend to perpetuate mediocre ideas and approaches.

Ocean water sampling is currently inefficient. Ships occupy the same regions repeatedly to sample for different purposes, each cruise being forced to collect the same low-priority ancillary data to accompany those measurements. For programs like WOCE/CLIVAR, a sample archiving program may be feasible and extremely cost-effective. A fair number of measurements could be conducted on samples collected at sea using a few collection protocols and preserved in a few different ways. 

8. Other comments pertinent to the committee’s charge.